“Mission accomplished. pmc Wagner is going home.” A Telegram account associated with Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group recently posted this message regarding its operations in Mali. For the past several years, Wagner has been operating in the West African nations of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to help fight a pan-national Islamist insurgency: the insurgent group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (jnim), which pledges allegiance to al Qaeda. According to Wagner, the job is done.

This is a lie. Wagner isn’t heading back to Russia because the job is done. It’s heading back because it is cutting its losses and giving in to the radical Islamists. If this trend continues, it will have massive implications for the wider world.

Context

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are former French colonies. France used to heavily assist these countries in counterterrorism operations. But in the last few years, all three have lost their pro-Western governments in military coups. The new juntas pressured France to go home. To fill the void, France welcomed in Wagner mercenaries.

Russia used Wagner to protect Russian interests without directly implicating the Russian government. After a massive mutiny in 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin tightened his control over the group. But it still exists and has great influence in Africa. In exchange for propping up unstable dictatorships, Wagner gave Russia access to billions of dollars’ worth of natural resources.

The foundation for this relationship is Wagner’s effectiveness in fighting off threats. In recent months, Wagner has been failing—big time.

jnim has had a successful offensive campaign. It specializes in asymmetric warfare, such as swarming military bases with gunmen on motorcycles. Between May 1 and June 1, it killed more than 400 soldiers in the three countries. On June 1, jnim attacked two large military bases in Burkina Faso and one in Mali. According to WarFronts Weekly, “Local reports suggest that multiple hundreds of soldiers may have been killed at the targeted Mali base, while dozens more were killed at each Burkinabé location.”

Since then, jnim has been hitting target after target with apparent impunity. On June 2, it launched a multipronged assault on Mali’s city of Timbuktu. jnim fighters stormed a military base inside the city while attacking three military checkpoints and a Russian air base. The same day, the terrorists attacked a base in Niger.

On June 3, jnim attacked several military convoys, including a Malian convoy accompanied by Russian mercenaries. On June 4, it attacked another convoy of Malians and Russians on the outskirts of Bamako, Mali’s capital. On June 5, it attacked barracks near the Malian-Burkinabé border.

jnim’s ongoing offensive is so successful that Wagner cannot guarantee its soldiers’ protection. And now Wagner Group is heading home.

The Future

Russia isn’t withdrawing completely. Its Africa Corps, a merger of former Wagner elements under the control of Russia’s government, is still on the ground. But the Africa Corps’ presence is more limited and more about supporting and advising local actors than front-line fighting. Because Wagner was, at least on paper, a private company, it allowed the Russian government plausible deniability regarding its actions.

Transitioning to the Africa Corps means the Russian government will be taking full responsibility. Minor skirmishes in Africa may not hurt Russia’s reputation too much with everything else it is doing around the world, but they could create problems internally.

The transition from Wagner to Africa Corps would likely drive the Kremlin to more openly acknowledge Russian casualties and setbacks suffered in Africa, which would be domestically unpopular. … Casualty compensation means that the Kremlin cannot obscure casualties suffered in Africa because it will have to report casualties to the affected families. Such casualties are widely unpopular among the Russian public, with affected families often questioning what their family members are fighting and dying for.
—Institute for the Study of War

Recent reports suggest some of Wagner’s soldiers will integrate into the Africa Corps. Russia has also confirmed sending heavy aircraft to Africa. But it isn’t certain how long Russia can keep this up. It has greater problems closer to home to worry about. And reports suggest the Africa Corps are already sustaining early losses.

The war on Ukraine is the largest land war in Europe since World War ii. And Russia recently lost its major ally on the Mediterranean coast, Bashar Assad’s Syria. Putin could decide the African escapades are too far away for too little reward and end Russia’s involvement completely.

At the very least, Russia is receiving more than it bargained for with jnim. If jnim’s successes continue, Putin would have little incentive to keep fighting what is increasingly becoming a lost cause.

For dictators looking for a sponsor without regard for human rights, Russia has been a natural partner. For several years, Russia was arguably the most influential foreign actor in Africa. This is changing.

The Trumpet predicted this change. Daniel 11:40-43 prophesies of a coming clash between two power blocs. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has identified the “king of the south” as a radical Islamist bloc led by Iran and the “king of the north” as a united European power. (See here for more information.) Verses 42-43 show that Egypt, Libya and Ethiopia will be major battlegrounds. Because of this, the Trumpet expects both Iran and Europe to be calling the shots in Africa.

Our July 2024 Trumpet issue states:

Russia is holding onto its empire with very few troops—just a couple of thousand or so in places. That’s not a lot. And they are not always effective. An August 2023 [United Nations] report said that the Islamic State’s affiliate in Mali almost doubled its territorial conquests in less than a year. The 2023 Wagner coup demonstrated that Putin’s control over these troops isn’t ironclad. If these several thousand Russians were taken out of the picture, radical Islam could spread through the region like wildfire. Or the juntas could shop for other sponsors, giving Iran an even bigger opening.

Or it could force junta leaders to return to Europe, cap in hand, and give the rising European power an excuse to send more soldiers into Africa.

These several thousand Russians are starting to be taken out of the picture—while radical Islam “spreads through the region like wildfire.” Keep your eyes on what happens next.

To learn more, read “Putin’s African Empire.”