Scientists say volcano eruption in Alaska is now ‘likely’
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU/Gray News) - A volcano in Alaska is ‘likely’ to erupt, according to experts.
The Alaska Volcano Observatory said it has seen an increase in volcanic gas emissions from Mount Spurr during flyovers in the last week.
According to the observatory, newly reactivated fumaroles, or gas vents, were seen at the volcano’s Crater Peak vent. Additionally, earthquakes and ground deformation continue near the volcano.
The observatory said new magma has intruded into the Earth’s crust beneath the volcano, which indicates an eruption is likely — but not certain — within the next few weeks or months. The volcano has accumulated magma for some months, with new gas data pointing to a new vent opening within Crater Peak.
According to the observatory, Crater Peak has been the site for all of the historical eruptions. The observatory stated that an exact timeframe for the eruption is unknown but that signs point to a likely eruption.
Alaska Volcano Observatory Scientist in Charge Matthew Haney said the most likely outcome is something similar to what occurred in 1953 and 1992.
“Those eruptions each lasted a few hours and produced ash clouds that were carried downwind for hundreds of miles and minor ashfall [up to about ¼ inch] on Southcentral Alaska communities,” Haney said.
The volcano is currently under an advisory, but would likely be raised to a more serious alert if more activity was detected.
“We expect to see a change in the rate and character of earthquakes, [the] onset of sustained seismic tremor, further increased gas emissions, changes in surface deformation and melting of snow and ice prior to an eruption, if one were to occur,” Haney said. “Such stronger unrest may provide days to weeks of additional warning.”
With the increased activity over the past weeks, the observatory says it is time to start preparing for a possible eruption and the ash that could be produced.
“We would recommend people start preparing by adding N95 masks, spare air and oil filters, windshield wipers, and vehicle washer fluid to their basic disaster supply kit,” Haney said.
The possible scenarios laid out by the Alaska Volcano Observatory are as follows:
- Explosive eruptions like those seen in 1953 and 1992
One or more explosive events lasting as long as a few hours, with ash clouds carried downwind and up to 1/4 inch of ashfall in Southcentral Alaska.
- Lava-forming and/or small explosive eruptions
A weaker eruption compared to 1953 and 1992 that would produce lava flows, a lava dome and possible brief eruptions. This event would have less impact further away from the volcano.
- Failed eruption
The mountain is monitored by an extensive seismic network with 11 stations sending regular data.
The volcano has been consistently showing several signs of unrest, including increased earthquake activity and deformation of the surface, but gas emissions remain normal.
In its latest update, the AVO said new gas measurements were collected on Feb. 7. These measurements showed no significant changes from those taken in June and December of last year and were similar to background levels.
“So that shows some of the uncertainty in what we’re seeing now, that it is showing this unrest, but it’s not yet giving us clear indications that this will progress all the way to an eruption,” Alaska Volcano Observatory Scientist in Charge Matthew Haney said.
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